Is investing in Alpine property still a reasonable choice?

80% of French resorts could guarantee skiing until 2050, or even beyond, thanks to the additional use of artificial snow. Studies carried out by the CNRS and INRAE, based on Climsnow simulations, indicate that, whatever the climate scenario considered, 45% artificial snow coverage would maintain sufficient snow conditions for almost all resorts until 2050.

French ski areas cover around 160,000 hectares, of which 26,000 are dedicated to alpine ski runs. 40% of runs already have snow cover secured by artificial snow. By international comparison, the French Alps are rather well placed: northern Italy covers 90% of its runs with artificial snow, Austria 70%, Spain 60% and Switzerland 49%; only the Scandinavian countries do better, at 25%.

Producing this snow requires the abstraction of 25 million cubic metres of water (1 m³ of water produces 2 m³ of snow). This volume should be put into perspective: it is far lower than the 160 million cubic metres used to fill private swimming pools in France. According to official EauFrance (BNPE) data, total water abstraction in Savoie exceeds 10 billion cubic metres, of which less than 10 million is for artificial snow, i.e. less than 0.1% of the department’s abstraction.

Several Alpine resorts are facing permanent closure as a result of economic difficulties and insufficient snow. In Isère, l’Alpe du Grand Serre, open for more than 80 years, is ceasing operations after a vote to end subsidies for its ski lifts. In Savoie, Notre-Dame-de-la-Tarentaise, the smallest resort in the department, is closing its doors. These closures are part of a long-term trend: since the 1970s, more than 180 ski areas have ceased operating in France, mostly small family-run or municipal mid-altitude resorts.

The Cour des comptes (French Court of Audit) report “Mountain resorts facing climate change” (February 2024) ranks 163 resorts according to a climate index (resilience to warming), an economic index (annual turnover) and a public finance index (dependence on subsidies).

Cross-referencing these vulnerability scores with the average prices of renovated older flats, some resorts appear overvalued relative to their score (Megève, La Clusaz, La Rosière: score of 11.7 for around €7,000/m²), while others may still be undervalued (Tignes, La Plagne, Chamonix). Courchevel is a special case, as the price used is that of Courchevel 1850 whereas the score aggregates the resort’s four levels.

This filter does not capture every characteristic of the resorts, but it seems consistent to observe prices above €10,000/m² for scores below 2; above a score of 2, the market appears to us more fragile in the long run.

Investing in the mountains still seems justified to us, despite price levels that may appear excessive. Prices are simply where supply meets demand: on the basis of the Cour des comptes vulnerability scores, prime price levels in high-altitude resorts (score below 2) should hold up mechanically, with sustained demand facing an ever-shrinking supply. The question is less clear-cut for mid-altitude resorts, which will have to offer alternatives to skiing in order to maintain their prices.